Lithium Carbonate Futures Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns and Rising Demand

Following a record high of 76,680 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate futures on July 24, prices opened even higher at 77,500 yuan/ton on July 25, reaching a peak of 80,520 yuan/ton by 11:30 AM. On the supply side, Yichun City has mandated eight lithium mining companies to complete mineral reserve verification by the end of September, raising concerns over reduced supply of lithium from mica. Additionally, some domestic lithium mining companies are undergoing maintenance or facing issues with license renewals, further supporting the rise in lithium carbonate futures prices. On the demand side, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to June 2025, sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 6.937 million units (including exports), marking a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. Meanwhile, the Power Battery Application Association reported that the installed capacity of power batteries in domestic new energy vehicles reached 302.24 GWh during the same period, a significant year-on-year increase of 48.8%. The rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry is driving continuous growth in demand for power batteries. Furthermore, the new energy storage market in China also maintained strong growth in the first half of this year, with total installed capacity reaching a record high. This indicates that these two new energy sectors are key drivers of the increased demand for lithium carbonate, a core raw material for lithium batteries. As the downstream market expands, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain robust. Overall, the ongoing developments regarding lithium mine suspensions, production cuts, and verification projects will be closely monitored by the industry, and combined with downstream stocking demand, will provide some support for lithium carbonate prices. However, it is worth noting that as of July 17, social inventory of lithium carbonate still exceeded 140,000 tons, which may suppress future price increases.