Lithium Carbonate Futures Hit 5-Month High Amid Rising Demand

On July 25, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 80,520 yuan per ton, marking a new high in five months. This follows a previous closing price of 76,680 yuan per ton the day before. Due to the consecutive rise in lithium carbonate futures, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from July 28, 2025, non-futures company members or clients will be restricted to a maximum daily opening position of 3,000 lots in lithium carbonate futures contracts. Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate futures price returning to above 80,000 yuan per ton is due to tightening supply and demand dynamics and regulatory impacts. With the continuous increase in new energy vehicle sales, the demand for lithium carbonate in the automotive market is rising. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 6.937 million units (including exports), a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. This has led to an increase in installed capacity of power batteries, with domestic installed capacity for new energy vehicle power batteries reaching 302.24 GWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year growth of 48.8%. On the policy front, Yichun City has mandated eight lithium mining companies to complete mineral resource assessments by the end of September. Some believe this could trigger expectations of reduced supply from muscovite lithium extraction. Additionally, the suspension of operations and maintenance by some domestic lithium mining companies may lead to issues with license renewals, which could further support rising lithium carbonate futures prices. Meanwhile, the government's emphasis on avoiding 'involution' in the industry has also provided support for the rebound in lithium carbonate prices. At the beginning of July, the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting proposed promoting an orderly exit of backward production capacity. Consequently, industries such as photovoltaics, steel, cement, and lithium batteries have actively responded to policy directions, accelerating capacity clearance. As of July 25, data from Wind Information shows that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan per ton, a 21% increase compared to the same period last year. Benefiting from the rebound in lithium carbonate prices, some upstream lithium mining companies have seen their performance improve. Tianqi Lithium Industries expects a net profit of between 0 and 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, likely achieving a turnaround. Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of between 300 million and 550 million yuan in the first half, narrowing the loss compared to the same period last year.